WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Representatives Scott Peters (CA-50) and Jason Crow (CO-6) reintroduced legislation to require the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to evaluate the economic and national security effects of climate change. The original National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change (NIECC) assessed that “climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security interests as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about how to respond to the challenge.” The members’ National Security Climate Intelligence Act (NSCIA) would require the Director of National Intelligence to provide Congress a similar report four years after passage of the legislation and every six years thereafter. On his first day in office, President Trump rescinded the Biden executive order establishing the NIECC.

“From the threat of migration crises to increased competition over resources like water, the NIECC made clear that climate change poses a serious national security risk,” said Rep Peters. “Since that time, we have only received more concerning news about the pace of climate change and the inadequacy of our response. Congress needs the best possible information to confront this challenge and pass laws to keep the American people safe. This commonsense legislation will promote our national security and economic prosperity.”

"Rising sea levels and intensifying natural disasters are a real threat to America’s national security. We are already seeing the effects of climate change and need to do more to combat it. Our bill helps to ensure that our intelligence community is prepared to respond and keep the American people safe,” said Congressman Crow.

“The impacts of climate change on our security are not distant – they are here now,” said Alex Stapleton, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, Foreign Policy for America (FP4A). “Melting ice and the energy transition are opening up new domains of strategic and economic competition; resource scarcity is contributing to instability, conflict, and humanitarian crises around the world; and here at home local communities are bearing the costs of more frequent and severe wildfires, flooding, and drought. FP4A is grateful to Reps. Peters and Crow for ensuring that thorough and reliable analysis of the threats we face remains the bedrock of security planning and decision-making, and we look forward to working with Congress to advance this important legislation.”

“The National Security Climate Intelligence Act is about equipping the U.S. intelligence community with the tools it needs to provide rigorous, objective analysis of the impact of climate change on our security and strategic interests,” said Robert Hutchings, former Bush Administration Chair of the National Intelligence Council. “For many years, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the intelligence community has produced pioneering work on climate change through its threat assessments, national intelligence estimates, and other reports, examining how more frequent and extreme weather events are affecting defense readiness and operational requirements. This isn’t about politics, it’s about making sure our military and policy makers aren’t caught flat-footed by the conflicts, migration flows, and political instability that climate pressures are fueling around the world. Solid intelligence is our first line of defense, and this bill ensures we have it.”

Key judgments from the NIECC included:

Key Judgment 1: Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Debate will center on who bears more responsibility to act and to pay—and how quickly—and countries will compete to control resources and dominate new technologies needed for the clean energy transition. Most countries will face difficult economic choices and probably will count on technological breakthroughs to rapidly reduce their net emissions later.

Key Judgment 2: The increasing physical effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashpoints as states take steps to secure their interests. The reduction in sea ice already is amplifying strategic competition in the Arctic over access to its natural resources. Elsewhere, as temperatures rise and more extreme effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030, and an increasing chance that countries will unilaterally test and deploy large-scale solar geoengineering—creating a new area of disputes.

Key Judgment 3: Scientific forecasts indicate that intensifying physical effects of climate change out to 2040 and beyond will be most acutely felt in developing countries, which we assess are also the least able to adapt to such changes. These physical effects will increase the potential for instability and possibly internal conflict in these countries, in some cases creating additional demands on US diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and military resources. Despite geographic and financial resource advantages, the United States and partners face costly challenges that will become more difficult to manage without concerted effort to reduce emissions and cap warming.

Full text of the bill here.

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